Contrary to President Donald Trump’s claim that no one will die as a result of the Republican budget bill, an analysis from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale University estimated that the legislation’s changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act will result in at least 42,500 preventable deaths each year. At the same time, independent Sen. Bernie Sanders has slightly overstated the estimate.
Republicans say that able-bodied adults who don’t work would lose Medicaid coverage under the House tax-cuts-and-spending bill, while Democrats say the legislation would hurt vulnerable groups. The bill’s main target is those able-bodied adults, but other groups would lose coverage due to paperwork burdens and other provisions in the bill, health policy experts say.
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center estimates that, on average, Americans’ taxes would rise about 7.5% if the 2017 tax cuts are allowed to fully expire at the end of the year. But President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that if the Republican budget bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, doesn’t pass, Americans “will get a 68% tax increase.”
Multiple independent analyses say the recently passed House reconciliation bill — even with its deep spending cuts in some areas — would add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit over 10 years. Those analyses contradict Republican lawmakers who have downplayed the net cost of the bill and White House claims that it wouldn’t increase the deficit at all.