Over the Labor Day weekend, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running digital ads on social media blaming House Republicans for “driving up the price of burgers.” But that’s misleading. The sizable rise in ground beef prices is tied to drought conditions in recent years, among other factors.
Lawmakers of both parties often blame each other for rising prices, and such finger-pointing is popular around holidays, with political rhetoric reminding voters about the size of their grocery bills for family get-togethers. The DCCC messaging mirrors Republicans’ arguments during the 2022 midterms, when congressional campaigns tied an increase in inflation to then President Joe Biden, and by extension the Democrats. (As we’ve written, economists cited several reasons for the higher inflation. And while stimulus spending did contribute, the root of the problem, economists said, was the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia’s war with Ukraine further affected prices.)
Here, again, prices have been affected by multiple factors – not merely an action, or inaction, by Congress.
Let’s take beef, for instance.
The DCCC announced static ads on Instagram to run this weekend targeting young men in 35 Republican-held congressional districts that it says are in play in the 2026 midterms. The ads show a grilled burger on a toasted bun and say “Republicans are driving up the price of burgers,” with ground beef up 28%, the main culprit for the costly cheeseburger.
A DCCC website on the topic shows it reaches back to mid-2022 to get that figure, when a pound of ground beef cost an average of $4.89. It’s now up to $6.25 as of July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. A steep price hike, of 12.8%, occurred this year.
The DCCC told us it started its comparison in mid-2022, when Democrats had control of both houses of Congress and the White House, to show how prices have changed with Republicans now having the trifecta of power. Republicans won control of the House in 2022, but the new legislators didn’t take office until January 2023.
Regardless of the starting point, it’s hard to see how House Republicans are to blame for the price of beef right now. Tariffs, particularly on imports from Brazil, could cause beef prices to continue to go up, but the factors influencing the cost now began a few years ago.
Drought conditions in the U.S. in recent years have caused a decline in the cattle herd, as we recently explained. That weather “placed a lot of stress on our farmers and their pastures that they rely on to help feed cattle,” Bernt Nelson, an agricultural economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told NBC News. “When this happened, they placed high numbers of females on feed for market rather than holding them back to replace the herd. And so that led us to this slow but steady contraction in the cattle herd.”
In addition to a smaller cattle herd in the U.S., the Department of Agriculture suspended live cattle imports from Mexico in July after a case of New World screwworm, a parasite that kills host animals, was discovered there.
It is possible that President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which Republicans have generally supported, could begin to affect beef prices as well, among other imported goods. On Aug. 6, 50% tariffs on some imports from Brazil, including beef, went into effect.
“The 50% tariffs on Brazil will effectively shut out Brazil beef from the USA, just at a time when we are critically short of beef and prices are already at record high levels,” Bob Chudy, a consultant for U.S. beef importers, told us for our story on prices published last month.
“Imported beef comprises about 20% of USA beef supply and Brazil is 30% of the imported beef coming to the USA. That number has exploded in recent years, filling the gap in the USA domestic supply,” Chudy also said.
The DCCC faulted House Republicans for not doing something to lower prices and indicated that its messaging on this issue will continue.
“Republicans promised to lower costs on day one and by all accounts have failed miserably,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton told us. “Prices continue to rise, people are struggling to get by, and Republicans have all fallen in line behind sweeping tariffs that are making everyday items like beers and burgers more expensive. From now through the midterms, the DCCC will continue to hold House Republicans accountable for their broken promises and failed agenda.”
But, again, the notable burger price hike is rooted in factors affecting the size of the cattle herd and the supply of imported cattle.
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