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A Project of The Annenberg Public Policy Center

Trump’s Hollow Surplus Claim

Trump’s Hollow Surplus Claim

In recent speeches and media scrums, President Donald Trump has lauded the federal budget surplus for the month of June, claiming the surplus had not happened in “many, many years” or “decades.” To be clear, the U.S. had not recorded a surplus in June since 2016 – but the country has had several surpluses in other months since that time.

The CBO Breakdown on Medicaid Losses, Increase in Uninsured

The CBO Breakdown on Medicaid Losses, Increase in Uninsured

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the House version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would reduce Medicaid enrollment and cause millions of people to become uninsured by 2034. It didn’t say that “5 million” of the people who are “going to lose insurance” would have “other insurance” so “they’re still insured,” as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett misleadingly claimed.

Unraveling the Big Beautiful Bill Spin

Unraveling the Big Beautiful Bill Spin

As the Republican budget bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, nears the July 4 deadline set by the White House, lawmakers have been ramping up the rhetoric. We referee the claims from both sides.

Trump Exaggerates Tariff Revenue

Trump Exaggerates Tariff Revenue

Treasury Department data show that revenue from tariffs on imported foreign goods increased substantially in April and May, setting monthly records. But the total is less than half the figure President Donald Trump has cited. At least twice this month, the president has wrongly claimed that the U.S. “brought in $88 billion” from tariffs in “two months.”

Q&A on Federalizing the National Guard in Los Angeles

Q&A on Federalizing the National Guard in Los Angeles

The disagreement between President Donald Trump and California Gov. Gavin Newsom over Trump deploying state National Guard troops to Los Angeles is now being debated in court. We’ll explain how the situation developed and answer some common questions.

Viral Graphic Makes False, Questionable Claims About House Reconciliation Bill

Viral Graphic Makes False, Questionable Claims About House Reconciliation Bill

A viral graphic warns that if the House-passed reconciliation bill becomes law, “we won’t have another election.” But there is no evidence to support that or some of the graphic’s underlying claims about “what’s coming” if the Senate also approves the legislation without any changes. For other claims, it’s unclear what they are based on.

A False Claim About Illegal Immigration and Medicaid

A False Claim About Illegal Immigration and Medicaid

A House-passed reconciliation bill would reduce federal funding to states that provide state-funded health insurance to people in the U.S. illegally, resulting in 1.4 million people losing coverage, according to a preliminary Congressional Budget Office analysis. But President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have wrongly cast the bill as removing these immigrants from Medicaid.

Democrats Exaggerate Estimated Impact of GOP Bill on Uninsured

Democrats Exaggerate Estimated Impact of GOP Bill on Uninsured

A preliminary Congressional Budget Office analysis said that a Republican legislative proposal that makes changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act would leave “at least 8.6 million” people without health insurance by 2034. But many Democrats have exaggerated the figure, claiming that 13.7 million would lose their insurance under the proposal.