Contrary to President Donald Trump’s claim that no one will die as a result of the Republican budget bill, an analysis from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale University estimated that the legislation’s changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act will result in at least 42,500 preventable deaths each year. At the same time, independent Sen. Bernie Sanders has slightly overstated the estimate.
Issues: uninsured
The CBO Breakdown on Medicaid Losses, Increase in Uninsured
The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the House version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would reduce Medicaid enrollment and cause millions of people to become uninsured by 2034. It didn’t say that “5 million” of the people who are “going to lose insurance” would have “other insurance” so “they’re still insured,” as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett misleadingly claimed.
Assessing Medicaid Coverage Losses Under House Reconciliation Bill
Republicans say that able-bodied adults who don’t work would lose Medicaid coverage under the House tax-cuts-and-spending bill, while Democrats say the legislation would hurt vulnerable groups. The bill’s main target is those able-bodied adults, but other groups would lose coverage due to paperwork burdens and other provisions in the bill, health policy experts say.
Democrats Exaggerate Estimated Impact of GOP Bill on Uninsured
A preliminary Congressional Budget Office analysis said that a Republican legislative proposal that makes changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act would leave “at least 8.6 million” people without health insurance by 2034. But many Democrats have exaggerated the figure, claiming that 13.7 million would lose their insurance under the proposal.